Changing climate, rising oil prices and geographical distribution of oil resources requires us to reduce our dependence on petroleum.
As the price of oil continues an upward trend reaching over US$ 100 a barrel in March 2008, the economic consequences for the transportation sector are substantial, leading to increased costs for movement of goods and people. This upward trend in oil prices, together with the geographical distribution of oil resources inevitably raises the question about reducing our dependence on petroleum. Awareness of climate change is now widespread and efforts are underway to identify ways of reducing carbon emissions. Sadly, we have not invested sufficiently in technologies that can reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) and are not reliant on petroleum. For example, California has set a goal of reducing GHG emissions by 80 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050 (Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Executive Order, 2005). This would require a reduction from 13.9 tons of CO2 equivalent per capita currently to 1.5 in 2050. With such a dramatic reduction being required, substantial changes in transportation related GHGs will be required.
Apart from reducing vehicle miles travelled (VMT), maximising mass transit deployment, downsizing of vehicles, using lightweight materials and extracting the maximum efficiency from gasoline and diesel engines, a policy to introduce zero emission technologies should be implemented starting with a low percentage, followed by its full deployment in 20 to 30 years. Electric drive technologies can satisfy this policy goal and must play an increasingly important role in reducing the future emissions. Ultimately, by using renewable energy one can achieve zero emission from electric drive technologies. The increasing global competition for oil and the political instability of much of the world's oil reserves make it apparent that reduction in oil use is a major factor in driving a new generation of vehicle technologies that can address these issues in a revolutionary, and not just evolutionary, manner. Electric drive represents such an opportunity.
The market place is clearly seeing increased use of electric power on-board vehicles for electronics and for hybridisation. New technologies with low or zero emissions of conventional pollutants (including noise) and those that derive their fuel from renewable energy should be deployed in expanding major urban areas in order to address climate change. The recent announcement of mass deployment of battery electric vehicles in Israel as part of a public-private partnership involving Renault is an excellent example of real world deployment of electric drive technology. Progress in fuel cell vehicles in the last decade, as evidenced by recent National Academy of Sciences and US Department of Energy reports, makes them one of the leading contenders for major deployment in the transportation sector in the next 20-30 years. However, any major transformation takes time and the foundation for deployment needs attention now.
Rapid growth in vehicle population in China and India has led to concerns about urban air quality and the impact of CO2 emissions on change in the climate. Vehicle manufacturers should try to improve the efficiency of conventional vehicle technology while significantly reducing pollution. However, merely setting fuel efficiency standards in a rapidly expanding vehicle population might not lead to any significant reduction in CO2. Concerns about the pollution, which can accompany the increasing dieselisation in rapidly expanding markets, requires strong enforcement of emission standards to minimise increasing NOx and particulate emissions. However, the use of low sulphur diesel fuel, necessary both for effective vehicle engine after treatment and the application of new technologies such as homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI), has been slow in countries that are seeing significant vehicle growth. I would like to suggest that a focused parallel effort be undertaken to deploy electric drive vehicles. The rationale for such an initiative is provided below.
Once vehicles enter into the market, they remain there for many years. With conventional combustion engines, it is likely that these vehicles will emit greater pollution over time as a result of factors such as inadequate maintenance, poisoning of catalysts, use of poor quality fuels etc. In short, deployment of these technologies today represents a significant sunk investment, which typically produces increased emissions as the vehicle ages. Electric drive vehicles, powered by batteries or fuel cells (or combinations thereof) do not experience these problems-they exhibit zero tailpipe emissions throughout their operating lifetime. Depending on the fuel mix for electricity generation, these technologies can result in dramatic CO2 reductions. Rather than continuing to grow diesel fleets exclusively, it seems prudent to invest in technologies that can considerably reduce GHG emissions.
The use of electric drive is slowly growing. In Delhi, India, the successful replacement of diesel buses and three wheelers by natural gas shows what can be done with decisive government policy. In China, millions of electric two-wheelers are being produced. Advances in battery and fuel cell technologies have been significant in the last decade. Applications of lithium ion batteries in electric vehicles are growing daily. Fuel cell applications are seeing a dramatic growth in the area of portable electronics, backup power for telecommunications and as replacements for batteries in forklifts used for material handling. Fuel cell buses are operating successfully in many parts of the world and will be deployed around Olympic events in Beijing (2008), Vancouver Canada (2010) and London (2012). General Motors and Honda have already released fuel-cell based vehicles into the market.
Although there are a few questions to be sorted out regarding costs, hydrogen storage and distribution, there is a huge potential in these technologies to drive critical investments necessary for reducing dependence on petroleum. It is high time the policy makers reconsidered investing solely in the technologies that affect the planet. They should also make an urgent effort to provide policy and financial incentives for true zero emission technologies. Two examples of cutting edge technologies have been discussed above and there will be others. With the stakes being so large, competition in this area will certainly be high.
Alan C Lloyd is president of the International Council on Clean Transportation. He holds a doctorate degree in Gas Kinetics from the University College of Wales, Aberystwyth, U.K. Dr Llyod is an advocate of alternate fuels, electric drive and fuel cell vehicles. Dr Lloyd's work focusses on the viable future of advanced technology and renewable fuels, with attention to urban air quality issues and global climate change.
